Biases in which people overrate their own ability, control, knowledge or prospects, including the overconfidence effect, the Dunning-Kruger effect, the planning fallacy and optimism bias. A phenomenon belongs here when its cited article describes overestimation of oneself. Every member sits in the Psychology Atlas as its own page with a definition, cited sources and links to related effects, so the group works as a reading path through Overconfidence and Overestimation Biases rather than as a claim that the members share one cause. Where scholars disagree about how an effect should be classified, the member page says so.
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Overconfidence and Overestimation Biases
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Wikipedia: Overconfidence effect
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The overconfidence effect is a cognitive bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high.
Dunning-Kruger effect (Wikipedia)
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The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that describes the systematic tendency of people with low ability in a specific area to give overly positive assessments of their ability.
Wikipedia: Planning fallacy
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The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed.
Wikipedia: Optimism Bias
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Optimism bias is the tendency of an individual to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate that of negative events.
Wikipedia: Illusion of Control
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The illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events.
Restraint Bias (Wikipedia)
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Restraint bias is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control impulsive behavior.
Wikipedia: Illusion of Validity
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Illusion of validity is a cognitive bias in which a person overestimates their ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analyzing a set of data, in particular when the data analyzed show a very consistent pattern-that is, when the data "tells" a coherent story.
Wikipedia: Illusion of Explanatory Depth
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The illusion of explanatory depth (IOED) is cognitive bias or an illusion where people tend to believe they understand a topic better than they actually do.
Positive illusions, Wikipedia
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Positive illusions are unrealistically favorable attitudes that people have towards themselves or to people that are close to them.
Downing effect, Wikipedia
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In social psychology, illusory superiority is a cognitive bias wherein people overestimate their own qualities and abilities compared to others.
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