The turkey illusion is a cognitive bias describing the surprise a person feels when a long-running trend suddenly breaks, if that person does not understand the underlying causes or conditions that had been sustaining the trend. The philosopher Bertrand Russell first introduced the underlying concept to illustrate a problem with inductive reasoning, and researchers in psychology and behavioral economics both study the biases the illusion can produce.
Facts
Core ClaimTurkey illusion is a cognitive bias describing the surprise resulting from a break in a trend, if one does not know the causes or the framework conditions for this trend. 1 First Described Year Classification
Type of Phenomenon Connections
In Branch
Source Wikipedia: Turkey illusion
Sources
1. Wikipedia: Turkey illusion
Wikimedia Foundationlead paragraph 1
Turkey illusion is a cognitive bias describing the surprise resulting from a break in a trend, if one does not know the causes or the framework conditions for this trend.
The story, paragraph 2
The story appears in Bertrand Russell's 1912 The Problems of Philosophy as relating to a chicken.
lead section, phenomenon-kind classification
The turkey illusion is a cognitive bias describing the surprise a person feels when a long-running trend suddenly breaks, if that person does not understand the underlying causes or conditions that had been sustaining the trend.
In Branch: Cognitive Psychology, Categories
Wikipedia article 'Turkey illusion' is filed under Category:Cognitive biases.
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