Projection bias is the tendency to falsely project a person's current preferences onto how they will feel in the future. When people try to estimate their own emotional state at a later time, they attempt to make an unbiased forecast, but that estimate ends up contaminated by whatever they happen to be feeling right now.
Facts
Core ClaimSourced to the subject's own accountProjection bias is the tendency to falsely project a person's current preferences and emotional state onto how they will feel about a future event, contaminating what should be an unbiased forecast. 1 First Described YearSourced to the subject's own account Classification
Type of PhenomenonSourced to the subject's own account Sources
1. Projection Bias (Wikipedia)
WikipediaWikipedia Affective forecasting article, Projection bias section, Overview, first sentence
Projection bias is the tendency to falsely project current preferences onto a future event.
Wikipedia Affective forecasting article, Projection bias section, Overview, last sentence
The term "projection bias" was first introduced in the 2003 paper "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility" by Loewenstein, O'Donoghue and Rabin.
lead section, phenomenon-kind classification
When people try to estimate their own emotional state at a later time, they attempt to make an unbiased forecast, but that estimate ends up contaminated by whatever they happen to be feeling right now.
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