The surveyed Wikipedia article names three component forms, overestimation, overplacement and overprecision, and cites many later studies, but states no founding study or coining year for the overconfidence effect itself, unlike the other five entities worked this pass which each name a clear year.
What would resolve this A citation to the earliest peer-reviewed study or review naming and defining the overconfidence effect as a distinct phenomenon, rather than one of its three later-named component forms.
Openhistory of psychologyWikipedia: Overconfidence effect