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All Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Groups the phenomena of the psychology atlas whose central finding concerns a systematic error in reasoning about probability, randomness or sample size, following Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's 1974 heuristics and biases program (the representativeness heuristic) and the broader statistical cognition literature it founded. Belongs here: the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot-Hand Fallacy, which describe seeing patterns in independent random sequences; the Base Rate Fallacy, the Conjunction Fallacy and Neglect of Probability, which describe ignoring or misweighing a known statistical base rate; Insensitivity to Sample Size, the Hard-Easy Effect and Probability Matching, which describe reasoning that does not track how sample size affects reliability; the Illusory Correlation, the Clustering Illusion, Berkson's Paradox, the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, Selection Bias, Survivorship Bias and the Subadditivity Effect, each a documented distortion in how evidence is selected, sampled or read as correlated. A phenomenon whose distortion concerns what is salient or easy to recall rather than a probability calculation is filed under anchoring and availability biases instead; every other decision or judgment bias not yet split into either new subcategory stays under decision-making and judgment biases.

Facts
Comparison
Originating Work
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Tversky and Kahneman, Science, 1974) 1
All Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases
Filter Results29 entries

Acquiescence Bias

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Base Rate Fallacy

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Berkson's Paradox

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Ceiling Effect

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Clustering Illusion

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Common-Method Variance

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Conjunction Fallacy

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Denominator Neglect

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Dichotomous Thinking

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Favourite-Longshot Bias

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Floor Effect

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Gambler's Fallacy

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Hard-Easy Effect

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

HARKing

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Hot-Hand Fallacy

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Illusory Correlation

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Insensitivity to Sample Size

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Neglect of Probability

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Observational Interpretation Fallacy

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Participation Bias

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

P-Hacking

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Probability Matching

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Regression Fallacy

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Regression Toward the Mean

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Representativeness Heuristic

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Selection Bias

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Subadditivity Effect

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Survivorship Bias

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases

Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

Probability and Statistical Reasoning Biases
Sources
1. Wikipedia: Heuristics in Judgment and Decision-Making
Wikimedia FoundationHeuristics in judgment and decision-making, Tversky and Kahneman section, probability/statistical-reasoning cluster
Quote, Heuristics in judgment and decision-making, Tversky and Kahneman section, probability/statistical-reasoning cluster
This research, called the heuristics-and-biases program, challenged the idea that human beings are rational actors and first gained worldwide attention in 1974 with the Science paper "Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases".
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