Philip E. Tetlock

Philip Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political psychologist and the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. Born in Toronto, he studied at the University of British Columbia and took his doctorate at Yale in 1979 under Phoebe C. Ellsworth. His research has explored good judgment and forecasting, the effect of accountability on decisions, the limits that sacred values place on thought, and hypothetical-society experiments. Between 1984 and 2003 he ran forecasting tournaments with 284 experts and about 28,000 predictions, reported in Expert Political Judgment, and found that experts were often only slightly better than chance and that fame went with inaccuracy. He later co-led the Good Judgment Project and wrote Superforecasting, and he was elected to the American Philosophical Society in 2019.