Probability Judgment Fallacies

A conjunction effect or Linda problem is a bias or mistake in reasoning where adding extra details

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that an independent and equally probable outcome which happened less frequently than expected is more likely to happen in the future (or vice versa).

The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., general prevalence) in favor of the information pertaining only to a specific case.

The neglect of probability, a type of cognitive bias, is the tendency to disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty and is one simple way in which people regularly violate the normative rules for decision making.

The subadditivity effect is the tendency to judge probability of the whole to be less than the probabilities of the parts.

The regression (or regressive) fallacy is an informal fallacy.

Denominator neglect, also known as denominator neglect bias or the ratio bias, is a cognitive bias in which individuals focus on the numerator of a ratio while neglecting the denominator.

The representativeness heuristic is used when making judgments about the probability of an event being representational in character and essence of a known prototypical event.

Insensitivity to sample size is a cognitive bias where people estimate the probability of obtaining a sample statistic without considering the sample size.

The hard-easy effect is a cognitive bias that manifests itself as a tendency to overestimate the probability of one's success at a task perceived as hard, and to underestimate the likelihood of one's success at a task perceived as easy.

Probability matching is a decision strategy in which predictions of class membership are proportional to the class base rates.

In gambling and economics, the favorite-longshot bias is an observed phenomenon where on average, betters tend to overvalue "longshots" and relatively undervalue favorites.

The observational interpretation fallacy is the cognitive bias where associations identified in observational studies are misinterpreted as causal relationships.